Surface temperature from 1860 until 2000 shows an overall rise of 0.9°C.The future projections are following CO2 emissions and atmospheric ghg concentrations (in ppmv - parts per million by volume).The red line shows Business-as-Usual (BAU) where the underlying emissions grow at 2%/yr. The blue line shows the lowest possible climate sensitivity - a rise of 1.5C - assuming a contraction by 2100 of 60% in annual emissions.

Recorded atmospheric Co2 concentration from 1860 until 2000 shows an increase of 34% over pre- industrial levels.This is a rise both higher and faster than anywhere in the ice-core sampling back 440,000 years before now. Concentrations are rising as the result of accumulating emissions. In future, the worst case is the red line as BAU.The best case sees this concentration stabilised at 70% above pre-industrial levels due to a 60% contraction in the underlying emissions by 2100.

Damages here are the global uninsured economic loss estimates (Munich Re) for the four decades past for all natural disasters projected at the observed rate of increase of 12% a year in comparison to global $GDP at 3%. If these global trends continue BAU, damages will exceed GDP by 2065! The risks will soon rise beyond the capacity of the insurance industry and even governments to absorb. Damages will rise for the century ahead even with emissions contraction, but the rate can be reduced with Contraction, Convergence, Allocation and Trading (C-CAT).

The regional per capita emissions traces shown below are the result of the convergence rate being set at global convergence by 2050. Different rates of convergence (faster or slower) might be negotiated. What is shown is the allocation of tradable permits emissions per capita with convergence complete by 2050. These do not necessarily reflect emissions per se. Subject to the overall C&C arrangement and depending on the extent of permit trading, the realised fossil fuel consumption patterns might be noticeably different.

The red line shows BAU CO2 emissions. The solid segments show "Contraction, Convergence, Allocation and Trade" [C- CAT] to manage emissions down by at least 60% within a given time frame (2100 here) with an agreed 'contraction budget' (here 680 billion tonnes of carbon).The internationally tradable shares of this budget (eg 100 billion tonnes) result from convergence to equal per capital emissions by an agreed date and population base year (here 2020).The renewables opportunity is the difference between C-CAT and BAU.Worth trillions of dollars per annum, it is the biggest market in history.

In June 1997, the US Senate passed the Byrd Hagel Resolution by 95 votes to 0. “The US should not be a signatory to any protocol to, or other agreement regarding, the UNFCCC of 1992, at negotiations in Dec.‘97, or thereafter, which would mandate new commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the Annex I country Parties, unless the protocol or other agreement also mandates new specific scheduled commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Developing Country Parties within the same compliance period.”
C&C is consistent with this. As shown here. the two defining distinctions are maintained.The 1st between the Annex 1Parties and the Developing Country Parties; the 2nd between 'limit' ghg emissions and 'reduce' ghg emissions. Limitation means controlled positive growth and reductions means controlled negative growth.Together "within the same compliance period", the paragraph translates into a process of "Contraction & Convergence". Annex 1 Parties reduce emissions while the Non Annex 1 Parties limit their emissions thus converging with Annex One.

Shown alongside here in barrels and tonnes carbon is the: - (1) peak of oil discovery in the 1960s (as published by EXXON in 2002) and
(2) peak of crude oil production as modeled by members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and
(3) where past and future reserves lie - the West is now past peak with two thirds proven reserves in the Gulf Middle East. This is based on data from Petro-Consultants as published by ASPO and,
(4) ASPO’s projected global gas depletion rate and,
(5) the amount of coal that is required to make the total tonnage of carbon emitted consistent with the IPCC Working Group One projection of a future where atmospheric concentration of CO2 rises no higher than 450 ppmv (as shown above).